(no subject)
Apr. 24th, 2008 03:28 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
kodalaiJust so y'all won't think I'm completely self-absorbed and brainless here’s my Thoughts On Food Shortages™.
Various newspaper, magazine and dictionary sources have already put many words of analysis into the factors that went into the current food shortage crisis. In no particular order of importance, some major ones were droughts and poor harvests, rising oil product costs, increase of variety of foods eaten and demanded by middle classes in developing countries such as China, decline in food stockpiling, and biofuels.
It may be tempting for one to blame the current food shortage on biofuels particularly, especially if, like myself, you think they're a pretty stupid idea in the first place. Corn being diverted from food production into biofuel production causes shortages of corn, and then substitution shortages of other grains as people buy more to make up for the shortage of corn. That dominoes into other industries; shortages of feed grain results in lower output of meats and dairies, leading to such spectacles as a first-world country running out of butter. All this happens because fuels are, in certain parts of the world, valued rather more highly than food.
But I think biofuels are only, as Aristotle would say, a proximate cause. Despite the staggering amount of hunger in the world, we actually are quite capable of producing all the food that we could possibly eat; all, as the saying goes, that the market can absorb. We are simply not doing so because of current economic and politicalinsanities factors which have made growing food for human consumption less profitable than growing food, then using fossl fuels to convert the food into biofuels.
For so long a time as we are producing all the food we need, there’s no particular reason not to adopt the (economically) excess grain to other market uses. The problem, however, comes when there is a sudden, unplanned-for decline in our production of crops, such as comes when we have a particularly dry or stormy year (or when the petroleum-based products necessary for farming experience a crazy price spike) and crop yields are crap.
I think that this food shortage thing is temporary, and probably will shake itself out in the next few months; shortage of crops and foods will lead to a subsequent boost in food production over fuel production as the foods are now economically viable and not 'surplus.' But there are a few points from this worth considering.
First, I haven't even touched on the sheer mind-boggling absurdity of growing grains to fuel SUVs or feed cows while an estimated 45% of the world's population is in dire poverty. On a slightly less bleeding-heart note it's worth pointing out that while the shortages might be temporary in a macro sense, for the weeks or months that they last they're of course going to hit the world's (and country's) poor disproportionately hard, and will continue to do so for a long time.
But the note I think is most important is this one: the decreased amount of food stockpiling world-wide. As heavy industrial agriculture increases, and shipping, transportation, and storage costs become a more significant chunk of the maintenance cost, the trend (and temptation) has been for a long time to adopt a more straight-to-the-shelves attitude and decrease warehousing as much as possible. It makes economic sense, if you're a blind and deaf baby elephant who speaks no English but numbers and thinks the world runs according to figure-books.
But I think the immediate cause of these shortages and their subsequent disastrous consequences was the stronger than expected droughts, storms, and poor weather worldwide. World governments (ours in particular) would do well to take notice of the fact that, seeing as climate change is an IMMINENT, IMMEDIATE, AND ENDURING FACTOR we can expect to see MORE AND MORE events of this order impacting the world's economy. And our primary focus should be provisioning for them (so to speak.)
Various newspaper, magazine and dictionary sources have already put many words of analysis into the factors that went into the current food shortage crisis. In no particular order of importance, some major ones were droughts and poor harvests, rising oil product costs, increase of variety of foods eaten and demanded by middle classes in developing countries such as China, decline in food stockpiling, and biofuels.
It may be tempting for one to blame the current food shortage on biofuels particularly, especially if, like myself, you think they're a pretty stupid idea in the first place. Corn being diverted from food production into biofuel production causes shortages of corn, and then substitution shortages of other grains as people buy more to make up for the shortage of corn. That dominoes into other industries; shortages of feed grain results in lower output of meats and dairies, leading to such spectacles as a first-world country running out of butter. All this happens because fuels are, in certain parts of the world, valued rather more highly than food.
But I think biofuels are only, as Aristotle would say, a proximate cause. Despite the staggering amount of hunger in the world, we actually are quite capable of producing all the food that we could possibly eat; all, as the saying goes, that the market can absorb. We are simply not doing so because of current economic and political
For so long a time as we are producing all the food we need, there’s no particular reason not to adopt the (economically) excess grain to other market uses. The problem, however, comes when there is a sudden, unplanned-for decline in our production of crops, such as comes when we have a particularly dry or stormy year (or when the petroleum-based products necessary for farming experience a crazy price spike) and crop yields are crap.
I think that this food shortage thing is temporary, and probably will shake itself out in the next few months; shortage of crops and foods will lead to a subsequent boost in food production over fuel production as the foods are now economically viable and not 'surplus.' But there are a few points from this worth considering.
First, I haven't even touched on the sheer mind-boggling absurdity of growing grains to fuel SUVs or feed cows while an estimated 45% of the world's population is in dire poverty. On a slightly less bleeding-heart note it's worth pointing out that while the shortages might be temporary in a macro sense, for the weeks or months that they last they're of course going to hit the world's (and country's) poor disproportionately hard, and will continue to do so for a long time.
But the note I think is most important is this one: the decreased amount of food stockpiling world-wide. As heavy industrial agriculture increases, and shipping, transportation, and storage costs become a more significant chunk of the maintenance cost, the trend (and temptation) has been for a long time to adopt a more straight-to-the-shelves attitude and decrease warehousing as much as possible. It makes economic sense, if you're a blind and deaf baby elephant who speaks no English but numbers and thinks the world runs according to figure-books.
But I think the immediate cause of these shortages and their subsequent disastrous consequences was the stronger than expected droughts, storms, and poor weather worldwide. World governments (ours in particular) would do well to take notice of the fact that, seeing as climate change is an IMMINENT, IMMEDIATE, AND ENDURING FACTOR we can expect to see MORE AND MORE events of this order impacting the world's economy. And our primary focus should be provisioning for them (so to speak.)
![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
no subject
Date: 2008-04-24 06:35 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-04-24 06:38 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-04-24 07:06 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-04-24 11:51 am (UTC)The only thing I'll add to this is that it would help if first world countries recognized that globalization is great - except when it means one is losing self-sufficiency. Part of Japan's problem, IMHO, is that while it does have a dearth of arable land, it also has to contend with a changing diet. Historically, the reason Japan ate rice/fish/etc was that cattle and other large animals take an enormous amount of space to raise; now it's more common to see people wanting Western food with lots of beef, chicken, pork, etc. Similarly, Americans are at a place where we think every meal should have a 15oz steak or a huge hamburger - or fruits and veggies like pineapples and avocados, which have to be imported from great distances. I'm not saying luxuries are the devil, but it would help if more people shifted back to locally produced foods as well.
no subject
Date: 2008-04-24 02:00 pm (UTC)I assume you've seen this (or its equivalent), but just in case other readers of your blog haven't: Cornell ecologist's study finds that producing ethanol and biodiesel from corn and other crops is not worth the energy (http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/july05/ethanol.toocostly.ssl.html)
no subject
Date: 2008-04-24 10:40 pm (UTC)