Purple states

[kodalai]

I was talking this morning with my Canadian exchange student, and the topic turned to the current progress of the election in the U.S. (He thinks the U.S. voting and election system, especially as it pertains to different voting processes by state, is overly complicated, and I can’t say I disagree.) But at some point I mentioned the concept of a “purple state,” that is, a state that is in the process of turning from red to blue. This as distinct from traditional swing states which can go either way, like good old Pennsylvania.

I mentioned California as an example of one that had made that transition. I’ve seen both Virginia and Arizona, formerly bastions of republican vote, referred to as purple states, and I suspect that Texas may be one as well. This process happens mostly as a result of demographic shift, as more people move into the (traditionally blue) cities, and as the immigration population which typically votes democratic also increases.

He asked me, are there any that are going the other way? Blue states that are going red?

I realized I don’t know. Are there?

Comments

[titlecharacter.livejournal.com]

FWIW, I've generally heard "purple" as a straight synonym for "swing."

But Minnesota's gone Blue-to-purple over the past couple elections.

Other than that... can't think of anything.

[degeneratelyre.livejournal.com]

I've always heard 'purple' used as a term for a state changing from one to the other, as in your examples of red-to-blue, but also blue-to-red. I'm not certain if it's happened since the term began circulation, but I think it's possible. I know that there are parts of Virginia that have been traditionally blue that are fading in to purple on the way to red as the demographics shift from more urban Democratic voters to more suburban/rural Republican voters, mainly due to redistricting. But I haven't heard of any complete states doing so yet.

[aging-parents.livejournal.com]

Sometimes it is not a matter of the state changing, but of the issues changing. Minnesota is a perfect example: when the issues were about political democracy and distrusting big corporate power, Minnesota was bright blue. When the Nixon/Reagan/Gingrich/Rove folks changed the focus to social issues, like gun control and gay marriage, Minnesota went red (or at least reddish). There are major constituencies, such as African Americans and Latinos that are very liberal on politics, economics & civil rights, but very conservative on social and religious issues. Much of the suburban vote of big cities in the North East and West Coast is precisely the opposite.

All the more reason that you can't allow the other side to select all the talking points (particularly dangerous given the right-leaning tendencies of the mainstream media).

How fast Texas goes blue will depend on how badly the Republicans alienate the Hispanics (and what percentage vote); but like Minnesota, it will help if the issues are predominantly economic rather than social.

[kodalai.livejournal.com]

This is true. Making the hot button topic of 2004's election be gay rights, what a mess that was.